Articles for November 2016

The History of Thanksgiving

Seeing our beloved Thanksgiving holiday from a historical perspective.  thanksgiving16

Thanksgiving is here and we really do have much to be thankful for – living in the greatest country in the world, with an amazing level of comfort and freedom compared with many other places.

When we think of Thanksgiving, images of colonists, Native Americans, peace and goodwill and Plymouth Rock usually come to mind. But there is more to the story, and more to the tradition.

Our American Thanksgiving essentially continues the age-old celebration of the harvest feast, which stretches back as far as 3,000 years. The Jews celebrated the Sukkoth. The Chinese celebrated the Chung Ch’ui. The Greeks and Romans had harvest feasts of their own. The common thread? They were all celebrations of good fortune, gratitude and relief.

Early colonial life was marked by hardship. In 1621, the Massachusetts colonists had endured persistent hunger, and the local Native American community had been decimated by introduced diseases. But the fall of 1621 brought peace, and farming techniques learned from the Native Americans had improved the lives of the colonists. A day of Thanksgiving was proclaimed by Governor William Bradford, to be shared by colonists and Native Americans. So Thanksgiving was a day of reflection and appreciation.

Thanksgiving didn’t become an “official” holiday in America until about 250 years later. Abraham Lincoln proclaimed a Thanksgiving Day holiday in 1863, when the country was going through one of its roughest times.

In good times and bad, there is still much to be grateful about. Our quality of life is remarkably high. We come through tough times and solve problems – and we deserve to celebrate.

From my family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving! 

Mike Moffitt may be reached at ph#641-782-5577 or email:  mikem@cfgiowa.com

Website:  www.cfgiowa.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Dow Closes Near Record High After Trump Victory

U.S. and European indices rise, while Asian indices fall.

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A day after Donald Trump’s election win, Wall Street experienced a surprising upswing. It was feared the market would plunge on November 9 since many investors were anticipating Hillary Clinton to triumph in the presidential race. Quite the opposite happened.

As the trading day ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a close of 18,589.69, thanks to a 256.95 gain. The Nasdaq Composite rose 57.58 to a close of 5,251.07, while the S&P 500 settled at 2,163.26 after a 23.70 jump. Gold futures gained 0.29% to $1,278.20; light sweet crude futures rose 0.80% on the NYMEX to settle at $45.34. Meanwhile, bond prices fell and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.08% Wednesday.1,2

The key European markets also seemed to be accepting the idea of a Trump presidency with relative calm. November 9 saw gains of 1.56% for Germany’s DAX index, 1.49% for France’s CAC-40, and 1.00% for the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 1.46%.1

This did not apply for the important Asian markets, where the trading day ended hours before action on Wall Street began. The biggest loser among the indices was the Nikkei 225. The Japanese benchmark slid 5.36%. Lesser losses were incurred by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (2.16%), India’s Sensex (1.23%), and China’s Shanghai Composite (0.62%).1

Why did Wall Street turn so bullish a day after the upset? Credit was quickly given to the victory speech Trump delivered very early Wednesday morning. In speaking to the Associated Press, Eric Weigard, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank’s Private Client Reserve, noted Trump’s “remarkably conciliatory posture,” which communicated a “presidential disposition, and gave a greater sense of calm.” Also, some institutional investors saw a buying opportunity: billionaire Carl Icahn told Bloomberg he was devoting about $1 billion to equities on Wednesday. “People are starting to realize that a Trump presidency is not the end of the world,” remarked Tom di Galoma, managing director of trading at Seaport Global Securities. Investors are hoping the optimism displayed on Wall Street Wednesday will be sustained.2

Mike Moffitt may be reached at ph# 641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com.
Website: www.cfgiowa.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Citations.
1 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/9/16]
2 – stltoday.com/business/local/u-s-stocks-rally-following-trump-victory-dow-closes-just/article_250baf34-2237-5cee-a725-c1f2d2dc0415.html [11/9/16]

A Veterans Day Tribute

Profile of US Military Soldiers

Profile of US Military Soldiers

Please join us in paying tribute to our nation’s brave veterans.

This Veterans Day, let’s all take the time to say “Thank you” in any way we can. Let’s all make a commitment to our veterans:

•that their deeds will never be forgotten.
•that they will never feel unappreciated.
•that they will never fade away
•that we will never forget them

How Will the Market Respond After the Election?

We may see some volatility, but equilibrium could quickly be restored.

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What will happen on Wall Street after November 8? We can shrug and say, “who knows,” and that simple answer may be as good as any other. Trying to predict which way the market will go is difficult, even when it comes to a single trading session. All that said, investors may take some cues from the result of the presidential election and push stocks in one direction or another.

Could there be a market shock? The biggest stock market disruptor so far in 2016 has been the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom. That late June development erased the entire year-to-date advance of the S&P 500 – but the S&P recovered quickly, gaining back its losses by the start of July in a textbook example of stock market resilience. The index rallied for several weeks thereafter.1

The market appears to be pricing in a Clinton win. A Trump win would defy quite a few political forecasts – and perhaps affect Wall Street in a way similar to the Brexit vote.

One forecasting firm, Macroeconomic Advisers, has put out a bold prediction: it believes that the S&P 500 could rise 4% in the near term after a Clinton win, while a Trump win would bring on a 7-8% descent. The Brookings Institute – a research and public policy think tank, not a market analytics firm – feels a Trump victory would prompt a correction. Overseas markets might also slump significantly in reaction to an oncoming Trump presidency, as Trump’s image outside the U.S. is largely unfavorable.1,2

Regardless of who wins, some immediate volatility would not be unusual. Bespoke Investment Group, a very respected provider of market data, finds that the S&P 500 has seesawed in the days surrounding recent presidential elections. The common pattern is a rally on Election Day; then, a pullback the next day, averaging around 1%. An extreme example of this behavior came in 2008, when the index rose 4% on Election Day (Barack Obama was the heavy favorite that year), then fell 5.3% a day later.2

What does history tell us could happen in the months ahead? Understanding that past performance is not indicative of future success (or failure), we see that the performance of the S&P has varied widely on such occasions. In 2012, the index was flat for the rest of the year after the election; the next year, the S&P rose 30%. In 2008, the S&P fell 10% after the election. Then it advanced 23% in 2009. In 2004, a 7% rally after the re-election of George W. Bush was followed by only a 3% gain in 2005. In 2000, an 8% post-election retreat for the S&P preceded a 13% fall for the index in 2001. From numbers like that, we can only conclude that stock market behavior is hard to predict.1

The election is an event on a timeline. Wall Street’s reaction to it, positive or negative, will likely be old news within weeks, if not days. The Federal Reserve’s December policy statement may make bigger waves. Take whatever occurs in stride, knowing that it is but a page in the long story of Wall Street. One market moment should not lead you to rethink your approach or your commitment to saving and investing for your long-term goals.

Mike Moffitt may be reached at ph#641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com
www.cfgiowa.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Citations.
1 – businessinsider.com/what-happens-in-the-stock-market-after-us-elections-2016-9 [10/15/16]
2 – money.cnn.com/2016/10/24/investing/stocks-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html [10/24/16]