Articles tagged with: des moines

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update January 27, 2014

MORE HOMES MOVE IN DECEMBER

Last month saw a 1.0% gain in existing home sales, a nice change for this key economic indicator after a few subpar months. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires anticipated sales improving 0.6%. The National Association of Realtors did revise November’s sales decline to 5.9% (it had been 4.3%).1,2

GAUGE OF NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS EDGES HIGHER

The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators – intended to assess economic prospects for the next 3-6 months – ticked up 0.1% for December. Additionally, the CB revised the November gain of the index from 0.8% to 1.0%.1

GOLD RALLY CONTINUES

Futures advanced for a fifth straight week, settling Friday at $1,264.30 an ounce on the COMEX after rising 1.0% in 5 days, helped by a wave of disappointing economic news from overseas. The precious metal hasn’t had such a long winning streak since September 2012.3

STOCKS STAGE A MAJOR RETREAT

Weak manufacturing data from China and an exit from emerging market currencies triggered a 2-day global selloff at the end of last week. The Argentine peso dropped 15% in 5 days, and the Russian ruble, South African rand and Brazil real also slumped. As a result, the DJIA had its poorest week in more than 2 years (-3.52%). The Nasdaq lost 1.65% for the week while the S&P 500 fell 2.63%. At the close Friday, here was where the big three stood: S&P, 1,790.29; DJIA, 15,879.11; NASDAQ, 4,128.17.4,5

THIS WEEK:  Monday brings Q4 results from Apple and Caterpillar and the Census Bureau’s report on December new home sales. On Tuesday, investors will consider the Conference Board’s January consumer confidence index, the November Case-Shiller home price index, December durable goods orders and earnings from Amgen, Ford Motor Co., Yahoo, Comcast, AT&T, Siemens and Pfizer. The earnings parade continues Wednesday with quarterly results from Dow Chemical, Novartis, Qualcomm, Boeing and Biogen – and the Federal Reserve makes a policy announcement. Thursday, NAR reports December pending home sales, the first federal estimate of Q4 growth appears, and earnings arrive from Amazon, Google, Banco Santander, Ericsson, LVMH, Royal Dutch Shell, H&M, Exxon Mobil, Visa, UPS and 3M. Friday, the Commerce Department issues its December personal spending report, the University of Michigan’s final January consumer sentiment index appears, and earnings arrive from Chevron, MasterCard and BBVA.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

-4.21

+14.86

+19.32

+5.03

NASDAQ

-1.16

+31.87

+35.89

+9.44

S&P 500

-3.14

+19.77

+23.04

+5.68

REAL YIELD

1/24 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.61%

-0.62%

1.93%

1.82%

Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 1/24/146,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

Precious metal investing is subject to substantial fluctuation and potential for loss.

The fast price swings in commodities, precious metals and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.
1 – nasdaq.com/article/european-markets-pulled-back-on-weak-chinese-data–earnings-20140123-00763 [1/23/14]
2 – tinyurl.com/mav8xv6 [1/22/14]
3 – proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/52211/gold-climbs-again-friday-longest-rally-since-september-2012-52211.html [1/24/14]
4 – thestreet.com/story/marketstory.html [1/24/14]
5 – businessweek.com/news/2014-01-24/argentina-to-ease-fx-controls-after-peso-fell-most-in-12-years [1/24/14]
6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F24%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F24%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F24%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F23%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F23%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F23%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F23%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F23%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F23%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/24/14]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/24/14]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/24/14]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update January 6, 2014

A MAJOR GAIN FOR A CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

The Conference Board’s monthly gauge of consumer confidence came in at 78.1 for December, beating the 76.0 median forecast from economists polled by Bloomberg. In November, it stood at 72.0. The index is way up from where it once was: its average reading was just 53.7 during the 2007-09 recession.1

HOME PRICES, HOME SALES CONTRACTS INCREASE

While existing home sales have fallen in recent months, the National Association of Realtors offered some positive news last week – pending home sales increased 0.2% in November, a contrast to October’s 1.2% retreat. The October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 13.6% yearly gain in property prices measured across 20 cities, improved 0.3% from the September edition; that is the best annual gain the Case-Shiller index has recorded since February 2006.1,2

FACTORIES HUM IN DECEMBER

December’s manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) from the Institute for Supply Management offered a reading of 57.0 – down from 57.3% in November, but still a mark of solid expansion in the factory sector. Analysts polled by MarketWatch expected the index to decline to 56.6.2

BULLS TAKE A BREATHER AS 2014 BEGINS

Speaking in Philadelphia Friday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke asserted that the economy has made “considerable progress”, and that there are “grounds for cautious optimism abroad.” His remarks didn’t give stocks much of a lift to end the week. From December 30-January 3, the S&P 500 lost 0.54%, the Dow 0.05% and the Nasdaq 0.59%. The closing prices Friday: Dow, 16,469.99; Nasdaq, 4,131.91; S&P, 1,831.37.3

THIS WEEK:

On Monday, ISM’s December service sector index and the Census Bureau’s report on December factory orders arrive, and the Senate is expected to approve Janet Yellen’s appointment as Fed chair. Tuesday offers earnings from The Container Store, Apollo Group and Micron. The minutes from the December 17-18 Fed policy meeting will be released on Wednesday, along with the December ADP job-change report and earnings from Family Dollar, Ruby Tuesday, Monsanto and Constellation Brands. Thursday brings December’s Challenger job-cut report, the latest round of initial jobless claims, and earnings news from Supervalu, Alcoa, Texas Industries and PriceSmart. The Labor Department publishes its December employment report on Friday.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

-0.64

+22.99

+16.46

+5.82

NASDAQ

-1.07

+33.26

+30.63

+10.59

S&P 500

-0.92

+25.49

+19.31

+6.52

REAL YIELD

1/3 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.75%

-0.54%

2.29%

2.06%


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

The S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index measures the change in the value of U.S. residential housing market. The S&P / Chase-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the growth in value of real estate by following the purchase price and resale value of homes that have undergone a minimum of two arm’s-length transactions. The index is named for its creators, Karl Case and Robert Shiller.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.
1 – sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Consumer-Confidence-Index-in-U-S-Increased-to-5111693.php [1/3/14]
2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [1/3/14]
3 – thestreet.com/story/12201583/1/market-hustle-stocks-rebound-ahead-of-bernanke-speech.html [1/3/14]
4 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [1/3/14]
5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [1/3/14]
6 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F3%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F2%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F2%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F2%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/3/14]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/3/14]

CFGIowa Monthly Economic Update November 2013

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

Will 2013 go in the books as the best year for U.S. stocks since the mid-1990s? It may. At the end of November, the S&P 500 was already up 26.62% YTD – and that was just its price return. November brought more signals of an improving economy, even with a hot housing market cooling off by degrees. The eurozone economy still looked tenuous; China’s economy showed signs of resilience. Prices of gold, oil and other key commodities dropped. Some foreign stock markets outperformed ours, others lost ground. The Federal Reserve made no moves, but its October policy minutes hinted at trimming its monthly bond buying.1

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Early in the month, the Labor Department stated that 204,000 new jobs were created in October, better than the average monthly gain of 190,000 seen during the past year. The jobless rate did tick up to 7.3%; at least that was 2.9% lower than the recessionary peak seen in October 2009. Manufacturing and service sectors appeared healthy judging by the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager indices (PMI). ISM’s factory sector gauge reached 56.4 in October (and 57.3 in November, marking a sixth straight monthly advance). Its service-sector PMI rose a full point in October to 55.4.2,3,4

November also brought the federal government’s first estimate of Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a surprisingly good 2.8%. (Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected a 2.3% reading.) As for the prime factor in GDP, a delayed Commerce Department report on consumer spending noted only a 0.2% gain in September, even as personal incomes increased 0.5%. Retail sales rose a healthy 0.4% in October, however.5,6,7

Respected consumer confidence polls reached different conclusions last month. The Conference Board’s index fell two whole points to 70.4, far underneath the 74.0 reading forecast by Briefing.com. The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for the month offered better news, rising to 75.1.8

Annualized inflation was amazingly tame – just 1.0% as of October, thanks to a 0.1% decline in the Consumer Price Index. As for wholesale prices, October’s Producer Price Index showed a 0.2% retreat, and that meant just a 0.3% gain over the past 12 months – the weakest annual wholesale inflation since 2009. Durable goods orders slipped 2.0% in October.7,8,9

As for the Fed, Janet Yellen reassured Wall Street at mid-month with dovish comments at her Senate confirmation hearing, noting that “supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.” Days later, however, the October Fed policy minutes noted that if indicators affirmed the FOMC’s “outlook for ongoing improvement” in the labor market, it would “warrant trimming the pace of [bond] purchases in coming months.”10,11

Lastly, the White House dealt with the backlash over the launch of HealthCare.gov. Less than 27,000 people had enrolled in the federal online insurance exchange in October due to glitches. A November repair effort left the site running much more smoothly at the start of December; CNN estimates that at the end of last month, total enrollment at HealthCare.gov and the 14 state-run exchanges surpassed 200,000, up from 106,000 at the end of October. Individuals have until December 23 to shop for health coverage effective on January 1.12

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

The EU jobless rate descended 0.1% in October to 12.1%. That was the good news. Annualized eurozone inflation hit 0.9% last month, rising from 0.7% for October (a 4-year low); retail sales slipped 0.8% in Germany in October following a 0.2% retreat for September. As for eurozone manufacturing, Markit’s PMI for the region reached 51.3 in October and a 2-year peak of 51.6 in November. Great Britain’s factory PMI hit 58.4 in November, the highest reading since February 2011. Not all was well: manufacturing PMIs showed contraction in Spain (48.6) and France (48.4).13,14

Indian manufacturing expanded for the first month since July in November, with HSBC’s PMI reaching 51.3. China’s official PMI was flat last month at 51.4 while HSBC’s PMI declined 0.1 points to 50.8. HSBC PMI readings for South Korea (50.4), Taiwan (53.4) and Vietnam (50.3) all showed growth in November. Japan’s official data stream showed yearly consumer inflation at just 0.6% and just an 0.9% annualized rise in consumer spending.13,15  

WORLD MARKETS

Performances were quite varied last month. Notable gains: DAX, 4.11%; Nikkei 225, 9.31%; Shanghai Composite, 3.68%; Hang Seng, 2.91%; IPC All-Share, 3.56%; MERVAL, 10.72%; TSX Composite, 0.26%; Global Dow, 1.65%; Europe Dow, 0.73%; DJ STOXX 600, 0.87%; MSCI World Index, 1.59%. These benchmarks racked up November losses: MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 1.56%; Asia Dow, 0.21%; Sensex, 1.76%; ASX, 1.94%; PSE Composite, 5.72%; Jakarta Composite, 5.64%; TAIEX, 0.51%; Bovespa, 3.27%; FTSE 100, 1.20%; CAC 40, 0.11%; RTSI, 5.23%.1,16

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Oil ended November at $92.72 as prices fell 3.57% on the month. Other energy futures posted monthly gains: heating oil, 2.70%; unleaded gasoline, 1.59%; natural gas, 10.69%. Gold sunk 5.46%, silver dropped 9.21%, platinum retreated 5.39% and copper lost 1.94%. COMEX gold settled at a mere $1,250.60 on November 29. As for crops, coffee rose 4.04%, cocoa 4.76%, cotton 2.81% and soybeans 4.39%; sugar lost 5.77% in November, corn 2.92% and wheat 1.80%. The U.S. Dollar Index ended November at 80.68 for a 0.60% monthly gain.17,18

REAL ESTATE

The National Association of Realtors announced that October had seen a 3.2% retreat in the pace of existing home sales – and a 0.6% slip in pending home sales. Countering the news of these declines, September’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index had house prices up 3.2% in Q3 and up 13.3% YTD. October also saw a 6.2% rise in building permits; the annualized gain was 13.9%. (As a consequence of the federal shutdown, new home sales figures for September and October won’t be announced by the Census Bureau until December 4, and the reports on September and October housing starts won’t arrive until December 18.)7,19,20

Between Halloween and November 27, Freddie Mac charted the following mortgage rate movements: 30-year FRMs, 4.10% to 4.29%; 15-year FRMs, 3.20% to 3.30%; 5/1-year ARMs, 2.96% to 2.94%; 1-year ARMs, 2.64% to 2.60%.21

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD

Record closes seemed commonplace last month as the major U.S. indices pushed toward these November 29 finishes: DJIA, 16,086.41; NASDAQ, 4,059.89; S&P 500, 1,805.81. The Russell 2000 gained 3.88% last month to end November at 1,142.89; the CBOE VIX declined 0.36% on the month to settle at 13.70 on November 29.1

% CHANGE

YTD

1-MO CHG

1-YR CHG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+22.76

+3.48

+23.53

+6.44

NASDAQ

+34.45

+3.26

+34.79

+10.71

S&P 500

+26.62

+2.80

+27.53

+7.06

REAL YIELD

11/29 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.60%

-0.78%

2.60%

2.03%

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/29/131,22,23

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

The S&P 500 has advanced in each of the past five Decembers, and with the bulls seemingly entrenched on Wall Street, there is little reason to think it might not add to its YTD gain this month. In recent years, December has also been a terrific month for the small caps: across 2008-12, the Russell 2000’s average December gain was 5.01%. Then again, Wall Street is a volatile place – and recent FOMC minutes do raise the possibility of the central bank tapering in December and taking some of the air out of any Santa Claus rally. It could be that stocks advance nicely prior to the December 18 Fed policy announcement and limp through the rest of the month. If the latest bicameral budget reduction committee can’t agree on a plan by the middle of December, investors will have more to fret about. Confidence is still prevalent on Wall Street, however, and the year may end nicely indeed for equities.24

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: The data stream for the remainder of 2013 is as follows: September and October new home sales, a new Fed Beige Book and the November ISM service sector PMI (12/4), the second estimate of Q3 GDP out of Washington, the November Challenger job-cut report and October factory orders (12/5), the November employment report, October consumer spending figures and the University of Michigan’s initial December consumer sentiment index (12/6), October wholesale inventories (12/10), November retail sales and October business inventories (12/12), the November PPI (12/13), November industrial output (12/16), the November CPI and the December NAHB housing market index (12/17), the latest Fed policy announcement plus data on September, October and November housing starts and November building permits (12/18), the last estimate of Q3 GDP (12/20), the University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment index and Commerce Department figures on November consumer spending (12/23), November new home sales and durable goods orders and October’s FHFA housing price index (12/24), and November pending home sales (12/30).


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«RepresentativeDisclosure»

Fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

Investing in foreign securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The MCSI uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.

The ISM index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPR are from the first commercial transaction for many products and services.

The S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index measures the change in the value of U.S. residential housing market. The S&P / Chase-Shiller  U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the growth in value of real estate by following the purchase price and resale value of homes that have undergone a minimum of two arm’s-length transactions. The index is named for its creators, Karl Case and Robert Shiller.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks.

The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.

The Mexican IPC index (Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones) is a major stock market index which tracks the performance of leading companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange.

The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization.

The Global Dow is a 150-stock index of corporations from around the world created by Dow Jones & Company.

The Europe Dow measures the European equity markets by tracking 30 leading blue-chip companies in the region.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index (TMI) and is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index.

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies.

The Asia Dow measures the Asia equity markets by tracking 30 leading blue-chip companies in the region.

The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) is Australia’s primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market.

The PSE Composite Index, commonly known previously as the PHISIX and presently as the PSEi, is the main stock market index of the Philippine Stock Exchange.

The IDX Composite or Jakarta Composite Index is an index of all stocks that are traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

The TWSE, or TAIEX, Index is capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange.

The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization.

The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse.

The RTS Index (abbreviated: RTSI, Russian: Индекс РТС) is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of 50 Russian stocks traded on the Moscow Exchange.

The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-m_globalstockindexes.html [11/29/13]
2 – ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/national-employment-monthly-update.aspx [12/2/13]
3 – ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm [12/2/13]
4 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [11/5/13]
5 – marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic [11/8/13]
6 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/11/8 [11/8/13]
7 – news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=620267 [11/20/13]
8 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/11/25-29 [11/27/13]
9 – marketwatch.com/story/us-wholesale-costs-fall-again-in-october-2013-11-21 [11/21/13]
10 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/asian-futures-heed-u-s-rally-as-yelen-boosts-treasuries.html [11/13/13]
11 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/fed-qe-taper-likely-in-coming-months-on-better-data-minutes-say.html [11/21/13]
12 – cnn.com/2013/12/02/politics/obamacare-website/index.html [12/2/13]
13 – investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-remains-steady-to-lower-in-thin-trade-255784 [11/29/13]
14 – investing.com/news/forex-news/forex—gbp-usd-hits-fresh-highs-after-u.k.-manufacturing-pmi-255844 [12/2/13]
15 – online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304579404579233363367081556 [12/2/13]
16 – mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [11/29/13]
17 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [11/29/13]
18 – online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3050.html?mod=mdc_curr_dtabnk&symb=DXY [11/29/13]
19 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/11/25-29 [11/27/13]
20 – dailyfinance.com/2013/11/26/case-shillers-housing-index-and-octobers-housing-s/ [11/26/13]
21 – freddiemac.com/pmms/ [12/2/13]
22 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
22 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
22 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
22 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
22 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
22 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
23 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/2/13]
24 – cnbc.com/id/101235707 [11/29/13]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update December 2, 2013

CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS, SENTIMENT INDEX RISES

Two respected barometers of consumer mood went different ways in November. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in at a disappointing 70.4, down from a revised 72.4 mark for October and well below the 74.0 reading forecast by Briefing.com. November’s final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan rose to 75.1, topping the Briefing.com projection by 1.6 points.1

HOUSING INDICATORS LARGELY IMPRESS

September’s edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index found house prices rising 3.2% for the third quarter, 13.3% YTD and 11.2% across the past 12 months. Building permits rose 6.2% in October, with the Census Bureau measuring a 13.9% annual gain. Pending home sales declined for another month: they fell 0.6% for October, the National Association of Realtors noted.1,2

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DECLINE

Overall hard goods orders slipped 2.0% in October, partly reversing the 4.1% increase in September. The silver lining? The Census Bureau found that October’s retreat was just 0.1% with transportation orders removed.1

NOVEMBER ENDS WITH FURTHER STOCK GAINS

The NASDAQ was the frontrunner among the big three U.S. indices last week, rising 1.71% to 4,059.89. Both the S&P 500 (+0.06% to 1,805.81) and Dow (+0.13% to 16,086.41) realized tiny gains during the abbreviated trading week. Turning to the NYMEX, oil and gold both had poor Novembers: on the month, gold slid 5.46% to $1,250.60 an ounce and light crude dropped 3.60% to $92.72 a barrel.3,4,5,6

THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM releases its November manufacturing PMI and the Census Bureau provides September and October construction spending data. Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases figures on November auto sales. On Wednesday, ISM puts out its November service sector PMI, the Federal Reserve offers a new Beige Book, the Census Bureau issues long-awaited September and October new home sales figures, and ADP produces its November job change report. The federal government releases its second estimate of Q3 GDP Thursday; also on tap for that day are the November Challenger job cuts report, data on October factory orders, and the latest initial jobless claims numbers. Friday, the Labor Department issues the November employment report, the Commerce Department publishes data on October consumer spending, and December’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrives.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+22.76

+23.53

+16.44

+6.44

NASDAQ

+34.46

+34.79

+32.88

+10.71

S&P 500

+26.62

+27.53

+20.30

+7.06

REAL YIELD

11/29 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.60%

-0.78%

2.60%

2.03%

Sources: CNNMoney.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/29/133,4,5,7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please send us their address (click the link). We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

The consumer confidence index is a survey by the Conference Board that measures how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are with respect to the economy in the near future.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The MCSI uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.

The S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index measures the change in the value of U.S. residential housing market. The S&P / Chase-Shiller  U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the growth in value of real estate by following the purchase price and resale value of homes that have undergone a minimum of two arm’s-length transactions. The index is named for its creators, Karl Case and Robert Shiller.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.

Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/11/25-29 [11/27/13]
2 – dailyfinance.com/2013/11/26/case-shillers-housing-index-and-octobers-housing-s/ [11/26/13]
3 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [11/29/13]
4 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [11/29/13]
5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [11/29/13]
6 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [11/29/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/29/13]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/28/13]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update November 25, 2013

CONSUMER & PRODUCER PRICES DECLINE

Last week, Labor Department reports showed the Consumer Price Index down 0.1% for October while the Producer Price Index slipped 0.2% with help from a 3.8% dip in gasoline costs. The real news was the remarkably tame yearly inflation. In the last 12 months, the CPI has only increased 1.0% and the PPI just 0.3% (although the core PPI did rise 1.4%). What do these annualized gains represent? The weakest wholesale inflation since 2009.1,2

FEWER HOMES SELL IN OCTOBER

Existing home sales fell 3.2% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. This marks the second straight monthly decline. Higher mortgage rates, narrowing inventory and the federal government’s 16-day shutdown certainly influenced sales volume. The median sales price of an existing home was $199,500 last month, 12.8% higher than a year ago.1,3

RETAIL SALES IMPROVE

October saw a solid 0.4% rise in the indicator, and that surprised analysts who thought the federal shutdown would hurt the headline number. Auto sales powered October’s gain, but Census Bureau data showed a 0.2% advance even with car and truck buying removed.1

S&P CLOSES ABOVE 1,800

While the October Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes revealed the possibility of tapering QE3 (Quantitative Easing) in “the coming months,” stocks still pulled higher on the week. The Dow (+0.65% to 16,064.77), NASDAQ (+0.14% to 3,991.65) and S&P 500 (+0.37% to 1,804.76) all shrugged off midweek dips.1,4

THIS WEEK: NAR releases its October pending home sales report Monday, complementing earnings from Fifth Street Finance and Wet Seal. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau issues September and October reports on housing starts and building permits, the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index comes out, and the September Case-Shiller Home Price Index arrives; additionally, TiVo and Chico’s announce Q3 results. Wednesday brings the University of Michigan’s final November consumer sentiment index, the Conference Board’s October leading indicators index and the October durable goods orders report from the Census Bureau. All U.S. financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving. Friday is Black Friday, of course; the NYSE and NASDAQ will close at 1:00pm EST with the bond market likely closing an hour later.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+22.59

+25.15

+19.93

+6.68

NASDAQ

+32.20

+36.39

+37.67

+11.08

S&P 500

+26.54

+29.74

+25.12

+7.43

REAL YIELD

11/15 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.56%

-0.71%

3.15%

1.93%

Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/22/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please send us their address (click the link). We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by the urban consumers for a market basket of consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPR are from the first commercial transaction for many products and services.

Quantitative Easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=620267 [11/20/13]
2 – marketwatch.com/story/us-wholesale-costs-fall-again-in-october-2013-11-21 [11/21/13]
3 – business.time.com/2013/11/20/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-3-2-percent-in-october/ [11/20/13]
4 – thestreet.com/story/12120723/1/market-hustle-curb-that-enthusiasm-dow-hesitates-at-16000.html [11/22/13]
5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/22/13]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/22/13]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update November 11, 2013

SHUTDOWN DOESN’T DETER HIRING

The Labor Department’s delayed October employment report showed the economy adding 204,000 new jobs last month. Analysts polled by Reuters had only expected a gain of 125,000. The unemployment rate actually rose to 7.3%, as those analysts had predicted. This was a nice Friday surprise for Wall Street, and it also made investors wonder if the tapering of QE3 (Quantitative Easing) could come before the end of the year. A solid November employment report could offer further grounds for that move.1

FIRST Q3 GDP ESTIMATE TOPS EXPECTATIONS

In another nice surprise for Wall Street, the Bureau of Economic Analysis put third quarter growth at 2.8%, whereas economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected a reading of 2.3%. In related news, a federal report showed factory orders up 1.7% in September, and the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) rose a full point in October to 55.4.2,3

HOUSEHOLD INCOMES OUTPACE SPENDING

The September consumer spending report was a bit of a disappointment. Personal spending increased 0.2% (economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.3% rise) while personal incomes rose 0.5%, suggesting that households saved more and spent less of what they earned. November’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 72.0, down from the final October mark of 73.2.3

DOW CLOSES AT NEW PEAK

Rising 1.08% on the day and 0.94% on the week, the DJIA settled at a new all-time peak of 15,761.78 Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.51% across five days to settle at 1,770.61 at week’s end, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ lost 0.07% in the same stretch, closing Friday at 3,919.23. Incidentally, the S&P is now riding a 5-week win streak, its longest since mid-February.1,4

THIS WEEK: Earnings season is winding down, but it should still take center stage this week with light data coming out of Washington. Monday is Veterans Day, a federal holiday; bond markets are closed, but the stock market is open and NewsCorp, American Apparel, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Trend Micro will present Q3 results. Tuesday brings earnings from Dish Network, DR Horton, Dean Foods and Pandora. Wednesday offers Q3 results from Cisco and Macy’s. On Thursday, earnings reports from Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Williams Sonoma, Vodafone, Viacom and Agilent arrive along with new initial claims figures. Reports on October industrial output and September wholesale inventories appear Friday.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+20.28

+23.03

+15.25

+6.07

NASDAQ

+29.80

+35.35

+27.58

+9.89

S&P 500

+24.15

+28.54

+18.04

+6.81

REAL YIELD

11/8 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.59%

-0.85%

2.86%

2.10%

Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/8/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please send us their address (click the link). We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

Quantitative Easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries.  A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The MCSI uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/kvl7fbr [11/8/13]
2 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/11/07/third-quarter-gdp-report/3452547/ [11/7/13]
3 – marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic [11/8/13]
4 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=oHF9Usj8IoOeiQLiKA [11/8/13]
5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/8/13]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/8/13]

CFGIowa Monthly Economic Update October 2013

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

A rampaging bull market overcame two significant challenges in October – a 16-day closure of most of the federal government, and the threat of a U.S. debt default. Congress broke the stalemate with a short-term rescue – a deal which guaranteed government funding until January 15 and extended the nation’s borrowing authority until February 7. Investors were relieved, and the S&P 500 added 4.46% to its YTD gain during the month. As expected, the Federal Reserve did not scale back its stimulus. As assorted commodities alternately rose and fell, global stock benchmarks mostly rose. Social Security recipients got a mild increase in payments for 2014, and uninsured individuals who visited healthcare.gov mostly got frustrated. Signs of the housing market cooling down a bit emerged, but there was still good news from the sector.1,2

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Standard & Poor’s estimates that the October shutdown took 0.6% off Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and cost the U.S. economy $24 billion. It certainly dented consumer confidence: the October Conference Board index showed a one-month drop of 9.0 points to 71.2, and the month’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 73.2, the lowest reading since last November.3,4,5

The impasse in Washington delayed or postponed some regularly scheduled economic reports. We did learn that the jobless rate had ticked down to 7.2% in September, even with only 148,000 new jobs created (economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a gain of 180,000). Consumer inflation rose 0.2% in September after ticking up 0.1% in August, while wholesale inflation decreased 0.1% in September after a 0.3% August advance. Retail sales retreated 0.1% in September, but were up 0.4% with auto buying factored out. Industrial output increased 0.6% in September, and durable goods orders rose 3.7%.4,5,6

Many uninsured consumers faced an impasse as they tried to use healthcare.gov, the federal government’s new website created to help people shop for health coverage in 36 states. The site was plagued by back-end design and security issues, leading some of its critics to call for the immediate resignation of Health & Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. Additionally, some insured Americans discovered they would have to buy new coverage in 2014 due to the inability of their current health insurance to meet the standards of the Affordable Care Act.7,8

In more positive news, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 56.4 in October, marking the fifth straight month of expansion. The last ISM report on the service sector (September) also showed expansion at 54.4, although this was a real drop from August’s reading of 58.6.9,10

As expected, the Federal Reserve refrained from tapering its $85-billion-per-month asset purchase program. Noting that “fiscal policy is restraining economic growth,” the Federal Open Market Committee’s October 30 statement also conceded that “the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months.” Social Security announced a 1.5% Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2014, one of the program’s smallest COLAs ever; that works out to an additional $19 a month for the average recipient.11,12

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

Demand for exports seemed to be driving manufacturing growth in Asia. China’s official purchasing managers index (PMI) hit 51.4 in October, an 18-month high.  The HSBC/Markit PMI for China also rose to 50.9 in October. Good news, yet a Bloomberg poll of 52 economists projected China’s 2013 GDP at 7.6%, the poorest since 1999. Markit’s factory-sector PMI for Japan climbed 1.7 points in October to 54.2 and Taiwan’s rose to 53.0. October’s Markit manufacturing PMI for India showed sector contraction – it was at 49.6 for a second straight month.13,14

Great Britain’s Markit PMI slipped 0.3 points to a still-impressive 56.0 in October. The combined Markit PMI for the eurozone slipped from 52.2 in September to 51.5 last month, but that reading still marked the fourth consecutive time it was above 50. Eurozone unemployment was at 12.0%, but Markit noted 15 eurozone members reporting “modest growth of activity for the third month running, representing the first period of growth for these countries since early 2011.” Spain had actually emerged from its 2-year recession in Q3, and its jobless rate fell in Q3 as well.13,15  

WORLD MARKETS

Many benchmarks rose. Across the pond, the DAX gained 5.11% in October, the STOXX 600 3.84%, the CAC 40 3.78% and the FTSE 100 4.17%. Up north, the TSX Composite climbed 4.49%; to our south, the IPC All-Share gained 2.12%. While the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite respectively lost 0.88% and 1.52% for the month, advances were more common in Asia: the Hang Seng added 1.52%, the Jakarta Composite 4.51%, the KOSPI 1.66% and the Sensex 9.21%. Looking at multinational/regional benchmarks, the MSCI World Index was up 3.83% for the month while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 4.76%; the Asia Dow advanced 3.01%, the Europe Dow 4.24% and the Global Dow 4.38%.2,16i COmposite : the TSX Composite (-2.30%), the  gan’

COMMODITIES MARKETS

Performances were all over the place. While copper lost 0.63% and gold 0.34%, silver futures advanced 1.59% and platinum futures 2.98%. NYMEX crude fell 5.91% on the month and unleaded gasoline retreated 0.51%, but natural gas rose 0.39%. Among the major crop futures, sugar (+4.12%) and cocoa (+1.29%) were the gainers. Soybeans lost only 0.04%, but deeper October losses were in store for wheat (1.69%), corn (3.00%), coffee (7.59%) and cotton (11.50%). The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.02 points on the month to wrap up October at 80.20.17,18

REAL ESTATE

Existing home sales fell 1.9% in September, but the National Association of Realtors said that the median home price was $199,200 – up 11.7% in the past 12 months, which marked the tenth consecutive month of double-digit annual price increases. August’s overall S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index mirrored this trend – it had prices up 12.8% year-over-year, improved from 12.3% in the July edition. NAR noted a 5.6% dip in pending home sales for September. October ended without September new home sales or new residential construction reports from the Census Bureau.4,19

Mortgage rates fell, with one exception. Comparing Freddie Mac’s October 31 and September 26 Primary Mortgage Market Surveys, we see the following decreases: 30-year FRMs, 4.32% to 4.10%; 15-year FRMs, 3.37% to 3.20%; 5/1-year ARMs, 3.07% to 2.96%. Interest rates on 1-year ARMs rose 0.01% in October to 2.64%.20

LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD

The S&P 500 closed at 1,756.54 on Halloween, while the Dow settled at 15,545.75 and the NASDAQ at 3,919.71. Small caps pushed higher as well: the Russell 2000 gained 2.45% last month, ending October at 1,100.15.2

 

% CHANGE

YTD

1-MO CHG

1-YR CHG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+18.63

+2.75

+18.70

+5.86

NASDAQ

+29.81

+3.93

+31.66

+10.29

S&P 500

+23.16

+4.46

+24.39

+6.72

REAL YIELD

10/31 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.40%

-0.78%

3.14%

1.93%

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/31/132,21,22

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

Now we come into what is traditionally a sweet spot for the stock market – the fall. As the federal shutdown altered some of the data collection and research processes that normally go into the economic reports out of Washington, the market may take the upcoming editions of those reports with a few grains of salt. Private-sector reports may carry more weight this month and next. There is a sense of normalcy, as the market has again been concentrating on earnings – and normalcy is good for a mature bull market. The next big test for stocks will come in mid-December – will the new congressional supercommittee meet its deadline to craft a multi-year deficit reduction plan for the federal budget? If it doesn’t, we may have a replay of the October impasse on Capitol Hill – and a sense of déjà vu on Wall Street.

UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: As you will notice, the data stream is a bit off-kilter for November. Just ahead, we have August and September factory orders (11/4), the October ISM service sector PMI (11/5), September’s Conference Board leading indicators (11/6), the October Challenger job-cut report and the federal government’s delayed first estimate of Q3 GDP (11/7), the Labor Department’s October jobs report, the University of Michigan’s initial November consumer sentiment index and Commerce Department figures on September consumer spending (11/8), September wholesale inventories and October industrial production (11/15), the November NAHB housing market index (11/18), September business inventories, October’s CPI, retail sales and existing home sales and the October 30 FOMC minutes (11/20), the October PPI (11/21), October pending home sales, September and October housing starts and building permits, the September Case-Shiller and FHFA housing price indices, the second estimate of Q3 GDP and the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence survey (11/26), October consumer spending and durable goods orders and the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (11/27). Thanksgiving falls on November 28, and due to the long weekend accompanying the holiday, there will be no further major economic releases until December. When will the Census Bureau put out some new home sales data? A combined September/October report is scheduled to appear December 4.


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«RepresentativeDisclosure»

Fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

Investing in foreign securities involves special additional risks. These risks include, but are not limited to, currency risk, political risk, and risk associated with varying accounting standards. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The MCSI uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy.

The ISM index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries. A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index measures the change in the value of U.S. residential housing market. The S&P / Chase-Shiller  U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the growth in value of real estate by following the purchase price and resale value of homes that have undergone a minimum of two arm’s-length transactions. The index is named for its creators, Karl Case and Robert Shiller.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index (TMI) and is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index.

The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse.

The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization.

The Mexican IPC index (Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones) is a major stock market index which tracks the performance of leading companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange.

Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks.

The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong.

The IDX Composite or Jakarta Composite Index is an index of all stocks that are traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea. The index represents all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange.

The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets.

The Asia Dow measures the Asia equity markets by tracking 30 leading blue-chip companies in the region.

The Europe Dow measures the European equity markets by tracking 30 leading blue-chip companies in the region.

The Global Dow is a 150-stock index of corporations from around the world created by Dow Jones & Company.

The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies.

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – chicagotribune.com/news/chi-government-shutdown-20131016,0,1118789.story [10/17/13]
2 – online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-m_globalstockindexes.html [10/31/13]
3 – swampland.time.com/2013/10/17/heres-what-the-government-shutdown-cost-the-economy/ [10/17/13]
4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/10/28-01 [11/1/13]
5 – tinyurl.com/lqwsp7p [10/25/13]
6 – stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-360718/ [10/22/13]
7 – arkansasonline.com/news/2013/oct/30/sebelius-apologizes-health-law-rollout-problems/ [10/30/13]
8 – arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/10/healthcare-gov-deferred-final-security-check-could-leak-personal-data/ [10/30/13]
9 – ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm [11/1/13]
10 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [10/3/13]
11 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/fed-keeps-85-billion-qe-pace-awaiting-signs-economy-picks-up.html [10/30/13]
12 – money.cnn.com/2013/10/30/news/economy/social-security-benefits/ [10/30/13]
13 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-01/manufacturing-strengthens-from-china-to-south-korea-economy.html/ [11/1/13]
14 – tinyurl.com/qf55s9c [11/2/13]
15 – nytimes.com/2013/10/25/business/international/europes-economy-shows-modest-signs-of-life.html [10/25/13]
16 – mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [10/31/13]
17 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [10/31/13]
18 – online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3050.html?mod=mdc_curr_dtabnk&symb=DXY [10/31/13]
19 – latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-existing-home-sales-20131021,0,6791691.story#axzz2jcIkT3V1 [10/21/13]
20 – freddiemac.com/pmms/ [11/3/13]
21 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/3/13]
21 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/3/13]
21 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/3/13]
21 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/3/13]
21 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/3/13]
21 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/3/13]
22 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/3/13]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update November 4, 2013

TAME INFLATION, 1.5% BOOST FOR SOCIAL SECURITY

Yearly inflation hit a 5-month low of 1.2% in September – the Labor Department noted a 0.2% rise in the headline Consumer Price Index. The core CPI rose 0.1%, with yearly core inflation at 1.7%. (Producer prices dipped 0.1% in September after a 0.3% advance in August.) With inflation so mild, the Social Security Administration announced a mere 1.5% increase in monthly benefit payments for 2014.1,2

MANUFACTURING SECTOR KEEPS GROWING

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose 0.2 points in October to 56.4. This marks a 2013 peak for the index. American factory activity grew for a fifth straight month.3

RETAIL SALES HOLD UP; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DIPS

While headline retail purchases declined 0.1% in September, the Census Bureau said retail sales were up 0.4% excluding autos. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 9.0% to 71.2 in October; chalk it up to the shutdown.4

HOT & COLD NEWS OUT OF THE HOUSING MARKET

Pending home sales fell again in September; the National Association of Realtors reported a 5.6% dip after a 1.6% retreat in August. August’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, however, saw a 12.8% annual gain in house prices across 20 cities.4

FED STANDS PAT, S&P RISES A BIT MORE

On October 30, the Federal Reserve announced no tapering of QE3 (Quantitative Easing) and no change to interest rates. This helped the S&P 500 go +0.11% for the week and close at 1,761.64 on Friday. The Dow settled at 15,615.55 Friday, rising 0.28% for the week; the NASDAQ lost 0.54% in five days to settle Friday at 3,922.04.5,6,7

THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from CME Group, HSBC, Vulcan Materials and Tenet Healthcare. ISM’s October non-manufacturing index arrives Tuesday, along with Q3 results from AOL, Liberty Interactive and Tesla Motors. Wednesday offers earnings from Toyota, Time Warner and Icahn Enterprises and the Conference Board’s September LEI index. Thursday offers earnings from Wendy’s, Apache, Tim Hortons, Disney and Groupon, new initial claims figures and the federal government’s first take on Q3 GDP. Friday sees the release of the Labor Department’s October jobs report, the Commerce Department’s September consumer spending report, the University of Michigan’s initial November consumer sentiment index and Q3 results from Tesoro Logistics and Leap Wireless.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+19.17

+18.01

+13.49

+5.93

NASDAQ

+29.89

+29.87

+25.58

+10.30

S&P 500

+23.52

+23.40

+16.37

+6.77

REAL YIELD

10/25 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.50%

-0.77%

3.14%

1.93%

Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/1/136,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please send us their address (click the link). We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by the urban consumers for a market basket of consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment, production inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries.  A composite diffusion index is created that monitors conditions in national manufacturing based on the data from these surveys.

The S&P / Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index measures the change in the value of U.S. residential housing market. The S&P / Chase-Shiller  U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the growth in value of real estate by following the purchase price and resale value of homes that have undergone a minimum of two arm’s-length transactions. The index is named for its creators, Karl Case and Robert Shiller.

Quantitative Easing is a government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/consumer-prices-in-u-s-rise-as-forecast-on-gain-in-fuel-costs.html [10/30/13]
2 – blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/10/30/social-securitys-2014-raise-a-modest-1-5/ [10/30/13]
3 – ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm [11/1/13]
4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/10/28-01 [11/1/13]
5 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/10/30/fed-october-meeting/3308411/ [11/1/13]
6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/1/13]
7 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI%2CINDEXSP%3A.INX%2CINDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC&ei=PRt0UqjpHuGuiQKpyQE [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/1/13]
10 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/1/13]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update October 28, 2013

AN ARGUMENT AGAINST TAPERING

According to the Labor Department, the economy added 148,000 jobs in September. The jobless rate dipped to 7.2%, but job creation has averaged less than 150,000 for three straight months. (August job growth was revised up to 193,000, July job growth down to 89,000.) The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment index slipped in the wake of the federal shutdown: the 73.2 reading was an 11-month low. Economists polled by Reuters forecast it coming in at 75.0.1,2

EXISTING HOME SALES PACE SLOWS

There was good news beneath the 1.9% September decrease reported by the National Association of Realtors. Residential resales have increased 10.7% in the past 12 months, 25.0% with distressed sales factored out. Distressed sales made up 14% of the market last month compared to 24% a year before. The median sale price was $199,200 last month, improving 11.7% in a year.3

DURABLES & INVENTORIES: GOOD NEWS

September saw a 3.7% jump in durable goods orders (albeit a 0.1% retreat minus transportation orders). The Commerce Department also said wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in August, a hint that businesses and suppliers expect solid holiday sales.2

ANOTHER RECORD CLOSE FOR THE S&P 500

Rising 0.88% for the week, the S&P settled at a new peak of 1,759.77 Friday, and both the DJIA (+1.11% to 15,570.28) and NASDAQ (+0.74% to 3,943.36) advanced with it. Friday’s NASDAQ close represented a 13-year high.2

THIS WEEK: Apple, Merck and Herbalife announce earnings Monday, which is also when NAR issues its September pending home sales report. Tuesday brings earnings from Nokia, Baidu, Pfizer, Gilead, Aflac, BP, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Electronic Arts, LinkedIn and Yelp plus the September PPI, September retail sales figures, the Conference Board’s October consumer confidence poll and the August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve makes a policy statement and the September CPI and October ADP employment change report appear; Facebook, General Motors, Allstate, GlaxoSmithKline, Barclays, Comcast, Visa, Expedia, Kraft Foods, Boeing and AT&T are out with earnings. October’s Challenger job-cut report arrives Thursday, along with a new initial claims report and quarterly results from ExxonMobil, MasterCard, ConocoPhillips, Sony, Starbucks and AIG. On Friday, November kicks off with Q3 results from Chevron, the October ISM manufacturing index and Commerce Department figures on October car and truck sales.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+18.82

+18.82

+17.17

+6.25

NASDAQ

+30.60

+32.06

+30.82

+11.14

S&P 500

+23.39

+24.54

+20.14

+7.10

REAL YIELD

10/25 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.34%

-0.63%

3.02%

1.92%

Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/25/134,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please send us their address (click the link). We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-360718/ [10/22/13]
2 – tinyurl.com/lqwsp7p [10/25/13]
3 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/10/21/september-existing-single-family-home-sales/3141663/ [10/21/13]
4 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F25%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F25%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F25%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F24%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F24%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F24%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
5 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F24%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/25/13]
6 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/25/13]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/25/13]

CFGIowa Weekly Economic Update October 21, 2013

FOCUS RETURNS TO EARNINGS, FUNDAMENTALS

A sense of normalcy returned to Wall Street late last week following Wednesday’s deal to end the federal shutdown. The sense of relief spurred the S&P 500 to an all-time high on Friday. At the end of last week, 85 S&P firms had reported quarterly results with earnings surpassing forecasts by an average of 4.2%. As for Washington, the new question is whether a bipartisan committee can negotiate its way to a federal budget agreement by December 13, while also crafting a 10-year plan for tax and entitlement reform. If this new budget panel can’t reach common ground by that deadline, the federal government will face the threat of another shutdown on January 15.1,2

MORE “MODEST TO MODERATE” GROWTH REPORTED

That was the big picture out of the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book. Eight of 12 Fed districts reported unchanged economic expansion over the past several weeks; however, the Chicago, Richmond, Kansas City and Philadelphia districts found the pace of the economic rebound slowing.3

STOCKS CLIMB 2.4%, OIL DECLINES, GOLD RISES  

To be precise, the S&P 500 advanced 2.42% last week, hitting a new intraday record of 1,745.32 on Friday before settling at 1,744.50. The NASDAQ finished the week at a 13-year high of 3,914.28, rising 3.23% across five days. A 1.07% weekly gain brought the Dow to a settlement price of 15,399.65 Friday. NYMEX crude settled at $100.81 per barrel Friday afternoon, down 1.2% since Monday for their fifth weekly loss in the past six weeks. COMEX gold jumped 3.2% on Thursday alone, with futures up 3.7% for the week to a Friday close of $1,314.60.1,4

THIS WEEK: Monday offers the NAR’s latest existing home sales report and earnings reports from Discover Financial, McDonald’s, Halliburton, Netflix and Texas Instruments. Look what’s coming Tuesday: Apple and Nokia launch events, the Microsoft Surface 2 release, the delayed September jobs report from the Labor Department, and earnings from United Tech, Broadcom, DuPont, Travelers and Amgen. The August FHFA Housing Price Index is out Wednesday, along with earnings from Caterpillar, GlaxoSmithKline, Boeing and AT&T. Thursday brings earnings from Amazon.com, Microsoft, Credit Suisse, Western Digital, Ford, 3M and Zynga, the latest initial claims figures, and possibly the Census Bureau report on September new home sales. Friday, Procter & Gamble and UPS announce Q3 results, the month’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrives, and the September durable goods report is slated for release.

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+17.52

+13.66

+14.79

+5.84

NASDAQ

+29.63

+27.38

+25.75

+10.47

S&P 500

+22.32

+19.70

+17.10

+6.79

REAL YIELD

10/18 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.42%

-0.66%

2.87%

2.14%

Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 10/18/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please send us their address (click the link). We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


«RepresentativeDisclosure»

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.

The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services.

The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 – tinyurl.com/n7awhay [10/18/13]
2 – csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2013/1017/A-new-shutdown-clock-is-ticking.-Can-Washington-avoid-a-rerun-video [10/17/13]
3 – kansascity.com/2013/10/16/4556768/economic-growth-lagging-in-kansas.html [10/16/13]
4 – marketwatch.com/investing/commodities [10/18/13]
5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F18%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F18%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F18%2F12&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F17%2F08&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F17%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F17%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F17%2F03&x=0&y=0 [10/18/13]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/18/13]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/18/13]