Articles tagged with: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Closes Near Record High After Trump Victory

U.S. and European indices rise, while Asian indices fall.

A day after Donald Trump’s election win, Wall Street experienced a surprising upswing. It was feared the market would plunge on November 9 since many investors were anticipating Hillary Clinton to triumph in the presidential race. Quite the opposite happened.

As the trading day ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a close of 18,589.69, thanks to a 256.95 gain. The Nasdaq Composite rose 57.58 to a close of 5,251.07, while the S&P 500 settled at 2,163.26 after a 23.70 jump. Gold futures gained 0.29% to $1,278.20; light sweet crude futures rose 0.80% on the NYMEX to settle at $45.34. Meanwhile, bond prices fell and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.08% Wednesday.1,2

The key European markets also seemed to be accepting the idea of a Trump presidency with relative calm. November 9 saw gains of 1.56% for Germany’s DAX index, 1.49% for France’s CAC-40, and 1.00% for the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100. The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 1.46%.1

This did not apply for the important Asian markets, where the trading day ended hours before action on Wall Street began. The biggest loser among the indices was the Nikkei 225. The Japanese benchmark slid 5.36%. Lesser losses were incurred by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (2.16%), India’s Sensex (1.23%), and China’s Shanghai Composite (0.62%).1

Why did Wall Street turn so bullish a day after the upset? Credit was quickly given to the victory speech Trump delivered very early Wednesday morning. In speaking to the Associated Press, Eric Weigard, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank’s Private Client Reserve, noted Trump’s “remarkably conciliatory posture,” which communicated a “presidential disposition, and gave a greater sense of calm.” Also, some institutional investors saw a buying opportunity: billionaire Carl Icahn told Bloomberg he was devoting about $1 billion to equities on Wednesday. “People are starting to realize that a Trump presidency is not the end of the world,” remarked Tom di Galoma, managing director of trading at Seaport Global Securities. Investors are hoping the optimism displayed on Wall Street Wednesday will be sustained.2

Mike Moffitt may be reached at ph# 641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com.
Website: www.cfgiowa.com

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

Citations.
1 – markets.wsj.com/us [11/9/16]
2 – stltoday.com/business/local/u-s-stocks-rally-following-trump-victory-dow-closes-just/article_250baf34-2237-5cee-a725-c1f2d2dc0415.html [11/9/16]

China’s Stock Market Turmoil

Can U.S. shares hold up in the wake of January’s shocks?

On January 7, China halted stock trading for the second time in four days. The benchmark Shanghai Composite sank 7.0% on January 4 and dropped 7.3% three days later, both times activating a new circuit-breaker rule that stopped the trading session.1

Markets worldwide fell in reaction to these dramatic plunges. On January 7 alone, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Germany’s DAX both suffered selloffs of 2.3%. On the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below the 17,000 level and the S&P 500 closed below 2,000.1,2,3

While the Dow and S&P respectively lost 2.3% and 2.4% Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite lost 3% and actually corrected from its July record settlement of 5,218.86.3

Why is China’s stock market slipping? You can cite several reasons. You have the well-noted slowdown of the country’s manufacturing sector, its rocky credit markets, and the instability in its exchange rate. You have Chinese concerns about the slide in oil prices, heightened at the beginning of January by the erosion of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. You have China’s neighbor, North Korea, proclaiming that its arsenal now includes the hydrogen bomb. Finally, you have a wave of small investors caught up in margin trading and playing the market “like visitors to the dog track,” as reporter Evan Osnos wrote in the New Yorker. More than 38 million new retail brokerage accounts opened in China in a three-month period in 2015, shortly after the Communist Party spurred households to invest in stocks. Less than 10 million new brokerage accounts had opened in China in all of 2014.1,4

In trying to calm its markets, China may have done more harm than good. Chinese officials spent more than $1 trillion in 2015 to try and reassure investors, and right now they have little to show for it. Interest rates have been lowered; the yuan has been devalued again and again. The government has also made two abrupt (and to some observers, questionable) moves.2

Last July, they barred all shareholders owning 5% or more of a company from selling their stock for six months. That ban was set to expire on January 8, and that deadline stirred up bearish sentiment in the market this week. The prohibition was just renewed, with modifications, for three more months.4

On January 4, the China Securities Regulatory Commission instituted a circuit-breaker rule that would pause trading for 15 minutes upon a 5% market dive and end the trading day when stocks slumped 7% or more. On January 7, the CSRC scrapped the rule amid criticism that it was being triggered too easily; Thursday ended up being the shortest trading day in the history of China’s stock market. In the view of Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings, the circuit-breaker rule clearly backfired: it produced a “magnet effect,” with selloffs accelerating and liquidity evaporating as prices approached the breaker.1,2

As Peking University HSBC Business School economics professor Christopher Balding commented to Quartz, the CSRC seems to lack sufficient understanding of “what markets are, how they work or how they are going to react.” Quite possibly, China will make further dramatic moves to try and reduce stock market volatility this month. Will U.S. stocks rally upon such measures? Possibly, possibly not.2

Wall Street is contending with other headwinds. The oversupply of oil continues: according to Yardeni Research, world crude oil output rose 2.4% in the 12 months ending in November to a new record of 95.2 million barrels a day.1

Additionally, the pace of American manufacturing is a worldwide concern. In December, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI showed sector contraction (a reading under 50) for a second straight month. Factory orders were down for a thirteenth consecutive month in November (the first time a streak of declines that long has occurred outside of a recession) and the November durable goods orders report also disappointed investors.1,5

Citigroup maintains an Economic Surprise Index – a measure of the distance between analyst forecasts and actual numbers for various economic indicators. It just touched lows unseen since early last year, which is not a good sign as equities tend to react the most to surprises.1

If the Labor Department’s December employment report and the upcoming earnings season live up to expectations, stocks might recover from this descent even if China does little to stem the volatility in its market. The greater probability is that more market turmoil lies ahead. That short-term probability should not dissuade an investor from the long-run potential of stocks.

Mike Moffitt may be reached at ph# 641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com
Website: www.cfgiowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.
1 – cbsnews.com/news/7-reasons-the-dow-lost-17000/ [1/7/16]
2 – qz.com/588386/chinas-new-stock-market-circuit-breaker-is-broken-and-it-is-panicking-investors/ [1/7/16]
3 – usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/06/china-stocks/78390650/ [1/7/16]
4 – latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-a-reminder-china-s-stock-market-is-a-clown-show-20160107-column.html# [1/7/16]
5 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2016/01/04-08 [1/7/16]

Why DIY Investment Management Is Such a Risk

Paying attention to the wrong things becomes all too easy.

If you ever have the inkling to manage your investments on your own, that inkling is worth reconsidering. Do-it-yourself investment management can be a bad idea for the retail investor for myriad reasons.

Getting caught up in the moment. When you are watching your investments day to day, you can lose a sense of historical perspective – 2011 begins to seem like ancient history, let alone 2008. This is especially true in longstanding bull markets, in which investors are sometimes lulled into assuming that the big indexes will move in only one direction.

Historically speaking, things have been so abnormal for so long that many investors – especially younger investors – cannot personally recall a time when things were different. If you are under 30, it is very possible you have invested without ever seeing the Federal Reserve raise interest rates. The last rate hike happened before there was an iPhone, before there was an Uber or an Airbnb.

In addition to our country’s recent, exceptional monetary policy, we just saw a bull market go nearly four years without a correction. In fact, the recent correction disrupted what was shaping up as the most placid year in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.1

Listening too closely to talking heads. The noise of Wall Street is never-ending, and can breed a kind of shortsightedness that may lead you to focus on the micro rather than the macro. As an example, the hot issue affecting a particular sector today may pale in comparison to the developments affecting it across the next ten years or the past ten years.

Looking only to make money in the market. Wall Street represents only avenue for potentially building your retirement savings or wealth. When you are caught up in the excitement of a rally, that truth may be obscured. You can build savings by spending less. You can receive “free money” from an employer willing to match your retirement plan contributions to some degree. You can grow a hobby into a business, or switch jobs or careers.

Saving too little. For a DIY investor, the art of investing equals making money in the markets, not necessarily saving the money you have made. Subscribing to that mentality may dissuade you from saving as much as you should for retirement and other goals.

Paying too little attention to taxes. A 10% return is less sweet if federal and state taxes claim 3% of it. This routinely occurs, however, because just as many DIY investors tend to play the market in one direction, they also have a tendency to skimp on playing defense. Tax management is an important factor in wealth retention.

Failing to pay attention to your emergency fund. On average, an unemployed person stays jobless in the U.S. for more than six months. According to research compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the mean duration for U.S. unemployment was 28.4 weeks at the end of August. Consider also that the current U-6 “total” unemployment rate shows more than 10% of the country working less than a 40-hour week or not at all. So you may need more than six months of cash reserves. Most people do not have anywhere near that, and some DIY investors give scant attention to their cash position.2,3

Overreacting to a bad year. Sometimes the bears appear. Sometimes stocks do not rise 10% annually. Fortunately, you have more than one year in which to plan for retirement (and other goals). Your long-run retirement saving and investing approach – aided by compounding – matters more than what the market does during a particular 12 months. Dramatically altering your investment strategy in reaction to present conditions can backfire.

Equating the economy with the market. They are not one and the same. In fact, there have been periods (think back to 2006-2007) when stocks hit historical peaks even when key indicators flashed recession signals. Moreover, some investments and market sectors can do well or show promise when the economy goes through a rough stretch.

Focusing more on money than on the overall quality of life. Managing investments – or the entirety of a very complex financial life – on your own takes time. More time than many people want to devote, more time than many people initially assume. That kind of time investment can subtract from your quality of life – another reason to turn to other resources for help and insight.

Mike Moffitt may be reached at phe# 641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com

Website: www.cfgiowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

  

Citations.

1 – cnbc.com/2015/09/10/this-market-is-setting-a-wild-volatility-record.html [9/10/15]

2 – research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMEAN [9/4/15]

3 – research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE/ [9/4/15]