Articles tagged with: Federal Reserve Bank

Rising Interest Rates

How might they affect investments, housing and retirees?

How will Wall Street fare if interest rates climb back to historic norms? Rising interest rates could certainly impact investments, the real estate market and the overall economy – but their influence might not be as negative as some perceive.

Why are rates rising?
You can cite three factors. The Federal Reserve is gradually reducing its monthly asset purchases. As that has happened, inflation expectations have grown, and perception can often become reality on Main Street and Wall Street. In addition, the economy has gained momentum, and interest rates tend to rise in better times.

The federal funds rate (the interest rate on loans by the Fed to the banks to meet reserve requirements) has been in the 0.0%-0.25% range since December 2008. Historically, it has averaged about 4%. It was at 4.25% when the recession hit in late 2007. Short-term fluctuations have also been the norm for the key interest rate. It was at 1.00% in June 2003 compared to 6.5% in May 2000. In December 1991, it was at 4.00% – but just 17 months earlier, it had been at 8.00%. Rates will rise, fall and rise again; what may happen as they rise?1,2

The effect on investments. Last September, an investment strategist named Rob Brown wrote an article for Financial Advisor Magazine noting how well stocks have performed as rates rise. Brown studied the 30 economic expansions that have occurred in the United States since 1865 (excepting our current one). He pinpointed a 10-month window within each expansion that saw the greatest gains in interest rates (referencing then-current yields on the 10-year Treasury). The median return on the S&P 500 for all of these 10-month windows was 7.93% and the index returned positive in 80% of these 10-month periods. Looking at such 10-month windows since 1919, the S&P’s median return was even better at 11.50% – and the index gained in 81% of said intervals.3

Lastly, Brown looked at the S&P 500’s return in the 12-month periods ending on October 31, 1994 and May 31, 2004. In the first 12-month stretch, the interest rate on the 10-year note rose 2.38% to 7.81% while the S&P gained only 3.87%. Across the 12 months ending on May 31, 2004, however, the index rose 18.33% even as the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.29% to 4.66%.3

The effect on the housing market. Do costlier mortgages discourage home sales? Recent data backs up that presumption. Existing home sales were up 1.3% for April, but that was the first monthly gain recorded by the National Association of Realtors for 2014. Year-over-year, the decline was 6.8%. On the other hand, when the economy improves the labor market typically improves as well, and more hiring means less unemployment. Unemployment is an impediment to home sales; lessen it, and more homes might move even as mortgages grow more expensive.4

When the economy is well, home prices have every reason to appreciate even if interest rates go up. NAR says the median sale price of an existing home rose 5.2% in the past year – not the double-digit appreciation seen in 2013, but not bad. Cash buyers don’t care about interest rates, and according to RealtyTrac, 43% of buyers in Q1 bought without mortgages.4,5

Rates might not climb as fast as some think. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley – whose voting in Fed policy meetings tends to correspond with that of Janet Yellen – thinks that the federal funds rate will stay below its historic average for some time. Why? In a May 20 speech, he noted three reasons. One, baby boomers are retiring, which implies less potential for economic growth across the next decade. Two, banks are asked to keep higher capital ratios these days, and that implies lower bank profits and less lending as more money is being held in reserves. Three, he believes households and businesses are still traumatized by the memory of the Great Recession. Many are reluctant to invest and spend, especially with college loan debt so endemic and the housing sector possibly cooling off.6

Emerging markets in particular may have been soothed by recent comments from Dudley and other Fed officials. They have seen less volatility this spring than in previous months, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index has outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year.2

Michael Moffitt may be reached at 1-641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com
website: cfgiowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.  Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor.  Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Economic forecast set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

The MSCI EM (Emerging Marketing) Europe, Middle East and Africa Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. As of May 27, 2010 the MSCI EM EMEA index consisted of the following 8 emerging market country indices: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa.

All indices referenced are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.
1 – newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html [5/22/14]
2 – reuters.com/article/2014/05/21/saft-on-wealth-idUSL1N0NZ1GM20140521 [5/21/14]
3 – fa-mag.com/news/what-happens-to-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise-15468.html [9/17/13]
4 – marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-fastest-in-four-months-2014-05-22 [5/22/14]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/43-of-2014-home-buyers-paid-all-cash-2014-05-08 [5/8/14]
6 – money.cnn.com/2014/05/20/investing/fed-low-interest-rates-dudley/index.html [5/20/14]

Coping With College Loans

Paying them down, managing their financial impact.

Are student loans holding our economy back? Certainly America has recovered from the last recession, but this is an interesting question nonetheless.

In a November 2013 address before the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Assistant Director Rohit Chopra expressed that college loan debt “may prove to be one of the more painful aftershocks of the Great Recession.” In fact, outstanding education debt in America doubled from 2007 to 2013, topping $1 trillion.1

More than 60% of this debt is held by people over the age of 30 and about 15% is carried by people older than 50. The housing sector feels the strain: in a November National Association of Realtors survey, 54% of the first-time homebuyers who had difficulty saving up a down payment cited their college loan expenses as the main obstacle. The ProgressNow think tank believes that education debt siphons $6 billion of new car purchasing power out of the economy per year.2,3

As the Detroit Free Press notes, the average 2012 college graduate is burdened with $29,400 in education loans. If you carry five-figure (or greater) education debt, what do you do to pay it down faster?4

How can you overcome student loans to move forward financially? If you are young (or not so young), budgeting is key. Even if you get a second job, a promotion, or an inheritance, you won’t be able to erase any debt if your expenses consistently exceed your income. Smartphone apps and other online budget tools can help you live within your budget day to day, or even at the point of purchase for goods and services.

After that first step, you can use a few different strategies to whittle away at college loans.

*The local economy permitting, a couple can live on one salary and use the wages of the other earner to pay off the loan balance(s).
*You could use your tax refund to attack the debt.
*You can hold off on a major purchase or two. (Yes, this is a sad effect of college debt, but backhandedly it could also help you reduce it by freeing up more cash to apply to the loan.)
*You can sell something of significant value – a car or truck, a motorbike, jewelry, collectibles – and turn the cash on the debt.

Now in the big picture of your budget, you could try the “snowball method” where you focus on paying off your smallest debt first, then the next smallest, etc. on to the largest. Or, you could try the “debt ladder” tactic, where you attack the debt(s) with the highest interest rate(s) to start. That will permit you to gradually devote more and more money toward the goal of wiping out that existing student loan balance.

Even just paying more than the minimum each month on your loan will help. Making payments every two weeks rather than every month can also have a big impact.

If the lender presents you with a choice of repayment plans, weigh the one you currently use against the others; the others might be better. Signing up for automatic payments can help, too. You avoid the risk of penalty for late payment, and student loan issuers commonly reward the move: many will lower the interest rate on a loan by a quarter-point or so in thanks.5

What if you have multiple outstanding college loans? Should one of those loans have a variable interest rate (about 15% of education loans do), try addressing that debt first. Why? Think about what could happen with interest rates as this decade progresses. They are already rising.5

Also, how about combining multiple federal student loan balances into one? If you graduated college before July 1, 2006, the interest rate you’ll lock in on the single balance will be lower than that paid on each separate federal education loan.5

Maybe your boss could pay down the loan. Don’t laugh: there are college grads who manage to negotiate just such agreements. In fact, there are small and mid-sized businesses that offer them simply to be competitive today. They can’t offer a young hire what the Fortune 500 can when it comes to salary, so they pitch another perk: a lump sum that the new employee can use to reduce a college loan.5

To reduce your student debt, live within your means and use your financial creativity. It may disappear faster than you think.

Michael Moffitt may be reached at phone# 1-800-827-5577 or email mikem@cfgiowa.com
website: www.CFGIowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.
1 – consumerfinance.gov/newsroom/student-loan-ombudsman-rohit-chopra-before-the-federal-reserve-bank-of-st-louis/ [11/18/13]
2 – forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2013/06/26/backlash-student-loans-keep-borrowers-from-buying-homes-cars/ [6/26/13]
3 – realtor.org/news-releases/2013/11/home-buyers-and-sellers-survey-shows-lingering-impact-of-tight-credit [11/13]
4 – tinyurl.com/nouty3k [4/19/14]
5 – tinyurl.com/k29m48y [5/1/14]