Articles tagged with: Great Recession

The Long Ascent of the S&P 500

The index has overcome obstacle after obstacle through the years.

No one knows what will happen tomorrow on Wall Street. Even the most esteemed analysts can only make educated guesses. As the old saying goes: past performance is not indicative of future results.

All that said, the market has had many more positive years than negative years. The history of the S&P 500 is worth considering in light of recent market volatility. The S&P is the broad benchmark that economists, journalists, and investors regard as shorthand for the “market.” As the S&P 500 includes about 500 companies, it represents overall market performance better than the 30-component Dow Jones Industrial Average.

If you look at the annual returns of the S&P since 1928, you will see a long ascent with periodic interruptions, and a historical affirmation of equity investment. Looking at the total returns of the S&P (with dividends reinvested), the numbers are even more impressive.

The S&P advanced in 63 of the 87 years from 1928-2014. The average total return during those 63 profitable years was 21.5%. The average total return during the 24 down years was not as bad: -13.6%.1

The index has endured only four multi-year slumps in this 87-year period: 1930-31, 1940-41, 1973-74 and 2000-02. As for extremes, the total return for 1954 was 52.56%; the total return for 1931 was -43.84%.2

Narrowing the time frame a bit to reflect the investing experience of baby boomers, the S&P advanced in 31 of the 40 years from 1975-2014.3

Have market gains typically outpaced inflation? Looking at data since 1950, the answer is yes. Only in the 1970s and 2000s did U.S. equities climb less than consumer prices. The nadir came in the 1970s, when yearly inflation averaged 7.4% while the S&P’s average price return was 1.6% and its average total return was 5.8%. Contrast that with the 1990s. In that decade, the annual price return for the index averaged 15.3%, the average total return 18.1%; mean yearly inflation was just 2.9%.4

When it seemed like the market was coming apart, the S&P recovered. As the oil crisis and inflation threatened to unglue venerable economies in the 1970s, the S&P posted total returns of -14.31% in 1973 and -25.90% in 1974. Then it roared back, gaining 37.00% in 1975 and 23.83% in 1976. When the dot-com bubble burst, the total return was -11.85% in 2001, -21.97% in 2002; after that, the S&P’s next two annual total returns were +28.36% and +10.74%. When the credit crunch and the Great Recession occurred, the index delivered an abysmal -36.55% total return in 2008; the next year, the total return improved to +25.94% and stayed positive through 2014.2

The S&P’s compound returns are especially encouraging. In studying the index’s compound annual returns, we get a solid understanding of how staying in the market has benefited the U.S. equity investor. Average returns are interesting, yet they do not factor in cumulative gains or losses over a given period.

Examining 40-year performance periods for the S&P from 1928-2014, the poorest such period had a compound return of 8.9%. The best 40-year “window” had a 12.5% compound return. Using an even narrower “window,” we find that the best 15-year stretch was from 1985-99, producing a compound return of 18.3%. The poorest 15-year stretch occurred before many of today’s investors were born: the interval from 1929-43 had a compound annual growth rate of just 0.6%.1

The compound return across 1928-2014 is 9.8%, in simplest terms meaning that a $100 investment in shares of S&P 500 firms in that year would have grown to $346,261 in 2014.1,*

The correction we have just witnessed looks momentary indeed in the light cast by these “windows” of time.

The lesson? Stay patient & keep the big picture in mind. Before this latest correction, the market had been comparatively calm for so long (the previous 10% drop happened nearly four years ago), investors had almost forgotten what a correction felt like. Moreover, that 2011 correction was the culmination of a three-month market descent; it was not so abrupt.5

We cannot predict tomorrow, but we can take comfort (and encouragement) from the history of the market and how well the S&P 500 has performed over time.

Mike Moffitt may be reached at ph# 641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com

Website: www.cfgiowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

 * This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

 The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index which cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Past performance is not guarantee of future results.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

 

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/story/understanding-performance-the-sp-500-in-2015-02-18 [2/18/15]

2 – pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html [1/5/15]

3 – 1stock1.com/1stock1_141.htm [8/27/15]

4 – simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm [8/27/15]

5 – cnbc.com/2015/08/21/the-associated-press-qa-what-a-stock-market-correction-means-to-you.html [8/21/15]

After QE3 Ends

Can stocks keep their momentum once the Federal Reserve quits easing?

“Easing without end” will finally end.
According to its June policy meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve plans to wrap up QE3 (Quantitative Easing) this fall. Barring economic turbulence, the central bank’s ongoing stimulus effort will conclude on schedule, with a last $15 billion cut to zero being authorized at the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.1,2

So when might the Fed start tightening? As the Fed has pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after QE3 ends, it might be well into 2015 before that occurs.1

In June, 12 of 16 Federal Reserve policymakers thought the benchmark interest rate would be at 1.5% or lower by the end of 2015, and a majority of FOMC members saw it at 2.5% or less at the end of 2016.3

It may not climb that much in the near term. Reuters recently indicated that most economists felt the central bank would raise the key interest rate to 0.50% during the second half of 2015. In late June, 78% of traders surveyed by Bloomberg News saw the first rate hike in several years coming by September of next year.4,5

Are the markets ready to stand on their own? Quantitative easing has powered this bull market, and stocks haven’t been the sole beneficiary. Today, almost all asset classes are trading at prices that are historically high relative to fundamentals.

Some research from Capital Economics is worth mentioning: since 1970, stocks have gained an average of more than 11% in 21-month windows in which the Fed greenlighted successive rate hikes. Bears could argue that “this time is different” and that stocks can’t possibly push higher in the absence of easing – but then again, this bull market has shattered many expectations.6

What if we get a “new neutral”? In 2009, legendary bond manager Bill Gross forecast a “new normal” for the economy: a long limp back from the Great Recession marked by years of slow growth. While Gross has been staggeringly wrong about some major market calls of late, his take on the post-recession economy wasn’t too far off. From 2010-13, annualized U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged 2.3%, pretty poor versus the 3.7% it averaged from the 1950s through the 1990s.3

Gross now sees a “new neutral” coming: short-term interest rates of 2% or less through 2020. Some other prominent economists and Wall Street professionals hold roughly the same view, and are reminding the public that the current interest rate environment is closer to historical norms than many perceive. As Prudential investment strategist Robert Tipp told the Los Angeles Times recently, “People who are looking for higher inflation and higher interest rates are fighting the last war.” Lawrence Summers, the former White House economic advisor, believes that the U.S. economy could even fall prey to “secular stagnation” and become a replica of Japan’s economy in the 1990s.3

If short-term rates do reach 2.5% by the end of 2016 as some Fed officials think, that would hardly approach where they were prior to the recession. In September 2007, the benchmark interest rate was at 5.25%.3

What will the Fed do with all that housing debt? The central bank now holds more than $1.6 trillion worth of mortgage-linked securities. In 2011, Ben Bernanke announced a strategy to simply let them mature so that the Fed’s bond portfolio could be slowly reduced, with some of the mortgage-linked securities also being sold. Two years later, the strategy was modified as a majority of Fed policymakers grew reluctant to sell those securities. In May, New York Fed president William Dudley called for continued reinvestment of the maturing debt even if interest rates rise.7

Bloomberg News recently polled more than 50 economists on this topic: 49% thought the Fed would stop reinvesting debt in 2015, 28% said 2016, and 25% saw the reinvestment going on for several years. As for the Treasuries the Fed has bought, 69% of the economists surveyed thought they would never be sold; 24% believed the Fed might start selling them in 2016.7

Monetary policy must normalize at some point. The jobless rate was at 6.1% in June, 0.3% away from estimates of full employment. The Consumer Price Index shows annualized inflation at 2.1% in its latest reading. These numbers are roughly in line with the Fed’s targets and signal an economy ready to stand on its own. Hopefully, the stock market will be able to continue its advance even as things tighten.6

Mike Moffit may be reached at phone# 641-782-5577 or email: mikem@cfgiowa.com
website: www.cfgiowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.
1 – marketwatch.com/story/fed-plans-to-end-bond-purchases-in-october-2014-07-09 [7/9/14]
2 – telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10957878/US-Federal-Reserve-on-course-to-end-QE3-in-October.html [7/9/14]
3 – latimes.com/business/la-fi-interest-rates-20140706-story.html#page=1 [7/6/14]
4 – reuters.com/article/2014/06/17/us-economy-poll-usa-idUSKBN0ES1RD20140617 [6/17/14]
5 – bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-07/treasuries-fall-after-goldman-sachs-brings-forward-fed-forecast.html [7/7/14]
6 – cbsnews.com/news/will-the-fed-rate-hikes-rattle-the-market/ [7/10/14]
7 – bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-17/fed-will-raise-rates-faster-than-investors-expect-survey-shows.html [6/17/14]

Coping With College Loans

Paying them down, managing their financial impact.

Are student loans holding our economy back? Certainly America has recovered from the last recession, but this is an interesting question nonetheless.

In a November 2013 address before the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Assistant Director Rohit Chopra expressed that college loan debt “may prove to be one of the more painful aftershocks of the Great Recession.” In fact, outstanding education debt in America doubled from 2007 to 2013, topping $1 trillion.1

More than 60% of this debt is held by people over the age of 30 and about 15% is carried by people older than 50. The housing sector feels the strain: in a November National Association of Realtors survey, 54% of the first-time homebuyers who had difficulty saving up a down payment cited their college loan expenses as the main obstacle. The ProgressNow think tank believes that education debt siphons $6 billion of new car purchasing power out of the economy per year.2,3

As the Detroit Free Press notes, the average 2012 college graduate is burdened with $29,400 in education loans. If you carry five-figure (or greater) education debt, what do you do to pay it down faster?4

How can you overcome student loans to move forward financially? If you are young (or not so young), budgeting is key. Even if you get a second job, a promotion, or an inheritance, you won’t be able to erase any debt if your expenses consistently exceed your income. Smartphone apps and other online budget tools can help you live within your budget day to day, or even at the point of purchase for goods and services.

After that first step, you can use a few different strategies to whittle away at college loans.

*The local economy permitting, a couple can live on one salary and use the wages of the other earner to pay off the loan balance(s).
*You could use your tax refund to attack the debt.
*You can hold off on a major purchase or two. (Yes, this is a sad effect of college debt, but backhandedly it could also help you reduce it by freeing up more cash to apply to the loan.)
*You can sell something of significant value – a car or truck, a motorbike, jewelry, collectibles – and turn the cash on the debt.

Now in the big picture of your budget, you could try the “snowball method” where you focus on paying off your smallest debt first, then the next smallest, etc. on to the largest. Or, you could try the “debt ladder” tactic, where you attack the debt(s) with the highest interest rate(s) to start. That will permit you to gradually devote more and more money toward the goal of wiping out that existing student loan balance.

Even just paying more than the minimum each month on your loan will help. Making payments every two weeks rather than every month can also have a big impact.

If the lender presents you with a choice of repayment plans, weigh the one you currently use against the others; the others might be better. Signing up for automatic payments can help, too. You avoid the risk of penalty for late payment, and student loan issuers commonly reward the move: many will lower the interest rate on a loan by a quarter-point or so in thanks.5

What if you have multiple outstanding college loans? Should one of those loans have a variable interest rate (about 15% of education loans do), try addressing that debt first. Why? Think about what could happen with interest rates as this decade progresses. They are already rising.5

Also, how about combining multiple federal student loan balances into one? If you graduated college before July 1, 2006, the interest rate you’ll lock in on the single balance will be lower than that paid on each separate federal education loan.5

Maybe your boss could pay down the loan. Don’t laugh: there are college grads who manage to negotiate just such agreements. In fact, there are small and mid-sized businesses that offer them simply to be competitive today. They can’t offer a young hire what the Fortune 500 can when it comes to salary, so they pitch another perk: a lump sum that the new employee can use to reduce a college loan.5

To reduce your student debt, live within your means and use your financial creativity. It may disappear faster than you think.

Michael Moffitt may be reached at phone# 1-800-827-5577 or email mikem@cfgiowa.com
website: www.CFGIowa.com

Michael Moffitt is a Registered Representative with and Securities are offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investments advice offered through Advantage Investment Management (AIM), a registered investment advisor. Cornerstone Financial Group and AIM are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Citations.
1 – consumerfinance.gov/newsroom/student-loan-ombudsman-rohit-chopra-before-the-federal-reserve-bank-of-st-louis/ [11/18/13]
2 – forbes.com/sites/halahtouryalai/2013/06/26/backlash-student-loans-keep-borrowers-from-buying-homes-cars/ [6/26/13]
3 – realtor.org/news-releases/2013/11/home-buyers-and-sellers-survey-shows-lingering-impact-of-tight-credit [11/13]
4 – tinyurl.com/nouty3k [4/19/14]
5 – tinyurl.com/k29m48y [5/1/14]